Sales grew 13.4% in August YoY, and 24.3% over July as a strong unpredicted upswing hit the Toronto housing market. Forecasts are for continued rising prices in the high density homes sector (Toronto condo forecast) as listings (down 10.5% YoY) lag behind buyer demand.
Toronto condos hit an average price of $601,541, up almost $34,000 from $567,748 last January. Despite the rise in prices in Tornto and across Canada, Teranet says Q2 saw the highest improvement in affordability since 2009. Sales of semi-detached homes rose an incredible 42%
7,711 sales were recorded in August, up 5% from June. Listings are down 11% from last August. Based on the demand happening, we’d have to say the fall housing outlook for the Toronto GTA area is looking good.
The HPI price index rose 3.2%. Detached home prices have risen 2% since January. All of the price growth came from condos, semi-detached, and townhouses, and apartments. Prices for detached homes fell in some mls districts being suppressed by the OSFI stress test and high asking prices.
The key factors coloring the fall Toronto housing market predictions are the upcoming Federal election. Rumor is that Andrew Sheer will ease the OSFI requirements, which might only push Toronto condo prices higher. Homeowners will continue to want top dollar for their house or property.
Why the Toronto Housing Market Forecast is Rosy
What no one is talking about so far, is whether Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives will wipe out the mortgage stress test rules when they’re elected in the fall. That would give the Toronto housing market a big boost, something which will lift the spirts of Toronto GTA real estate community.
What Caused the Summer Bump in Home Sales?
- buyers estimating that now is a good time to buy
- buyers expect prices will rise strongly over Summer and Fall
- buyers have more money for downpayments
- buyers see mortgage rates potential falling
- trade deal with US appears to be stronger
- employment rates are strong in the GTA
- there are properties for sale
- long winter created lower sales for a longer time
Some districts saw unusual prices including Toronto C01 MLS district which rose 9.6% and W02 district which saw price increases of 5.7%.
The wealthy communities of King and Whitchurch Stouffville saw average price growth in the last month exceeding $100,000. Milton’s average home price jumped $70,000 in May. Other districts including Aurora, Markham, Richmond Hill saw price drops while eastern cities including Whitby, Oshawa, and Pickering saw upward price growth.
Toronto Housing Market Prediction
Housing prices in Toronto will rise this summer of 2019 and will keep rising past the Federal election on October 21, 2019.
The GTA market is still a big market and only the Montreal housing market has a chance to outperform the GTA housing market through 2020. Housing markets in Calgary and Vancouver are down significantly. However, the fall market is normally subdued, and buyers are likely waiting to see how the US elections pan out and whether the US housing market and economy will continue growing.
Investors wants to know whether demand will continue or if this the end of the business cycle with the usual stock market crash or housing crash.And as Toronto’s housing market goes, so does Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Brampton, Scarborough, Markham, Vaughan, and even Newmarket, Bradford, and Aurora.
There are lots of reasons why homeowners won’t sell and number one is that they have no where to go.
Predictions: Housing Market Crash?
Vancouver’s housing market is in free fall right now, what might be called a slow crash. It does make sense that Toronto’s market would soon begin the same fate given the factors that control supply and sales.
Given how strong demand in the GTA is, a Toronto housing crash is little outlandish. Despite issues related to the Federal and provincial governments, the enormous unfulfilled demand for housing (i.e. affordable housing) will ensure prices continue upward. While the stress test rules are blamed, it may be the economic uncertainties of Ontario and Canada that are dampening buyer spirits.
The much prophesized US housing crash and China housing crash haven’t happened either so maybe this spirit of optimism in Toronto will conquer all of the tariff strife? (Okay, Trump does love Tariffs).
With the Ontario economy highly dependent on the strength of auto manufacturing and a stagnant housing market (governments need the taxes) there’s some valid worry about 2020.Should you Call a Realtor and Sell Your Home? It’s a good time if you have a plan and somewhere to go.
GTA's Insatiable Appetite for Money
Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.
TREB has reiterated its belief that it’s the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. Thus far, neither the Toronto or Ontario administration have solved the affordability or economic issues.
With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2020 will see strong demand for most properties.
What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?
Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city. It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.
And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population.
Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2019/2020.
While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking west and north to Kitchener, Waterloo, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.
Huge new housing developments in Kitchener, Walterloo, Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.